Thoughts on Elections 2004
I am compelled to write and share with everyone(if anybody bothers) my thoughts as India went through a remarkable week ranging from rediculous to sublime. First came the mother of all surprises: The verdict of people voting Congress into the largest individual party and its Alliance as the largest pre-poll coallation. No pundit in his right mind would have called it so a week ago. Even the Andhra Pradesh results were taken as mere abberation.
This is a miracle since in 1998 when Sonia Ghandi entered the scene, the Congress was well and truly in wilderness. There were 3 States which has Congress Chief Mininsters. There were no clear leader in sight for the congress. Today it has the largest number of seats in the parliment. It is running 15 state governments. What led to this transformation? Has BJP lost its glamour? Has Sonia brought life back into Grand Ol'Party? Is it people needed a change? Or India really hasn't shined in the last 5 years? Has the largest votebank for BJP, the Urban Middleclass deserted BJP when BJP needed them most? Has Hindutva failed to make an impact?
Looking back, in hindsight (what a wonderful gift the hindsight is!), it seems more like a combination of all these factors. Some more than others. The most important of these being that "India Shining" campaingn targetted at the urban middleclass succeeded well ( maybe too well and isolated it from the rural masses). And the urban middleclass has the most apathy towards, the democratic process of forming the Govt, elections. So their turnout was minimal in the election day(s). So one painful lesson any party should learn is that in India is "Support is not equal to vote".
Second was the curious fact that this is the first election that BJP has moved away from the Hindutva theme and tried to come back to power on the economic achievements and foreign policy accomplishments. This is a sure fire strategy to fail with the masses. Can you give any Indian citizen who would say "I am happy with what government has done for me economically"? Always an average Indian would be ruled by his heart than his mind. This is a proven fact for all the previous elections, and this election is no exception. I wonder if the lesson the BJP will conclude from this fisco will be "Win=Communal Politics"? It would be very unfortunate if it does so. It also portends a grim future for indian secularism if BJP & RSS decide to inflame issues which should not have been there in the first place.
Third would be the tireless efforts of Sonia coupled with the anti-incumbancy factor has turned the direction in which winds were blowing. She has grown in stature and experiance in the past 5 or 6 years. By killing the "foreign origin" issue she has proven to be a leader with great political accumen even if it might cast aspersions on her fortitude. Couple of observations on her actions. One: she is more of a person to hold fort until Rahul or priyanka vies for the top post. Two: All through the election campaign her manthra was simple, "I am your bahu. Vote for Congress because it will keep the Nehru-Ghandi tradition alive". This shows that she might be lacking in clear ecenomic/foriegn policy issues. She was banking more on the de-merits of the other party , than the strengths of her own party. This might be a good tactics to get to power but what good is the power without a clear vision. India is on the threshold of a great oppurtunity to be a great power in the world. We need leaders who will take us there. Does Sonia have enough guts to do this. Looking at Mr. Singh's announcements it seems like the stronger allies would prevail.
This is not to say the industries are the only consideration that a govt should have, but dont sacrifice reforms and thereby tremendous industrial growth in the last decade by catering populist measures. This assuredly makes recipe for an imbalanced growth, where some strata of the society would be growing at a faster pace than others, but there are certain things to balance them out (like huge education drives whereby everyone gets a decent start - more than which one should not expect from the government) than by giving subsidies. Like one communist leader said, "It is better to teach how to fish than giving him the fish itself".
More on this later........
